Everyone seems to have the same question for me lately: “Are you absolutely swamped right now?”
The assumption is that Greenwich must be overflowing with buyers fleeing New York City after the election. And every time another headline circulates about a “post-election exodus,” someone inevitably asks whether people are pouring over the border in droves, scooping up every house from Backcountry to Belle Haven.
So, what’s the tea?
The truth is more nuanced than the headlines suggest. Yes, there is activity. Yes, some New Yorkers are reconsidering suburban life. And yes, Greenwich continues to attract high-net-worth interest because it offers access, acreage, and amenities that few towns can replicate. But no, we are not watching an overnight tidal wave of new residents.
What we are seeing, however, are the early signals of movement – the kind that often precedes a larger shift. I’m already working with two clients who recently sold in New York City, are choosing to rent there for now, and are reallocating their capital to purchase in Greenwich with longer-term plans in mind. This is not panic buying. It is strategic, long-term planning, and it is becoming more common.
This month, I want to separate headline hype from Greenwich reality, while acknowledging the momentum building beneath the surface.
The Headlines Are Driving the Narrative
A number of recent articles have suggested a renewed rush from New Yorkers exploring the Connecticut suburbs following the election. Examples include:
New York Post: “Wealthy New Yorkers Eye Connecticut Again After Election Uncertainty”
Bloomberg: “Election Results Spur Luxury Buyers to Revisit Suburban Markets”
Locally, the coverage has zeroed in on upper-tier activity:
Greenwich Time: “Greenwich Sees Jump in Luxury Sales but Inventory Still Tight, Realtors Say”
CT Insider: “Greenwich’s Ultra-High-End Market Paces Ahead of Prior Years”
These headlines have created the impression that Greenwich is experiencing an overwhelming surge post-election. The reality, however, is far more measured, but also more compelling.
What the Data Actually Shows
So far, the market has not registered a dramatic post-election spike in closings. Greenwich Town property transfer records show activity consistent with early fall pacing rather than a sudden surge.
National data echoes this. According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales remain below long-term averages, and migration patterns have leveled off since the pandemic highs.
But here’s the reality: Markets don’t turn overnight. First come inquiries, strategy conversations, and asset repositioning; exactly what we’re seeing today.
Most importantly, Greenwich is entering this moment with the lowest single-family inventory on record with fewer than 80 homes on the market as of December 2025. This is the tightest supply ever logged in the Greenwich MLS. When you combine historically low inventory with rising interest and pent-up demand, you get a market that is poised, not stagnant.
Interest Is Up, and Early Movement Is Real
There is an increase in calls, tours, and deeper conversations. New York buyers are exploring their options, asking questions about schools and taxes, and evaluating longer-term exit plans. Some are acting quickly at the very high end of the market; the segment that always moves first in moments of transition.
But the “meat and potatoes” of Greenwich – families – move on entirely different timelines. They don’t pull children out of school mid-year. They plan. They prepare. They reposition assets.
That’s exactly what we’re witnessing: Thoughtful, strategic preparation rather than impulsive relocation.
The two buyers I mentioned earlier are perfect examples. They sold in the city, are renting there to finish out the school year, and are preparing to purchase in Greenwich. They will establish themselves here gradually before making a full move. This pattern, renters in NYC becoming owners in Greenwich, is a meaningful signal of what may come next.
What We Are Not Seeing – Yet
We are not seeing the quantitative hallmarks of a full migration wave: population growth, rising school enrollment, increased permits or a large jump in transactions.
But we are seeing:
– More New Yorkers exploring Greenwich
– Capital being reallocated toward suburban life
– Deeper conversations around long-term moves
– A noticeable uptick in high-end interest
– Record-low inventory creating urgency
These are the kinds of signals that often precede a busy spring.
So What Is the Greenwich Tea?
Greenwich is steady, desirable and exceptionally well positioned. Beneath that steadiness, momentum is quietly building. The post-election frenzy described in headlines hasn’t fully materialized, but the groundwork for a strong spring is unmistakable.
Some buyers are acting. More are preparing. And with inventory at historic lows, smart buyers and sellers should be getting ahead of the market, not waiting for it. If you know a move is in your future, whether buying or selling, don’t wait until spring to start. The rush is coming, and those who prepare now will be in the strongest position when the market tightens even further.
The tea is simple: Greenwich isn’t in a frenzy, but it is on the verge of something. And in a market defined by scarcity and strength, timing matters. As always, we’re watching the data, not the noise.