This decade is almost to the halfway mark, and we have the favorable perspective of hindsight. You only have to look back on the past few years to see that the only thing that is reliably predictable is that the future is always unpredictable! From the pandemic and inflation, to rising interest rates and limited housing inventory, the past few years have been challenging to say the least. You may want to torture yourself with “would’ve, could’ve or should’ve”: “I would’ve bought the dip in May 2020! I could’ve sold our home in Spring 2021! I should’ve refinanced in Summer of 2021!”… The list goes on… but if these regrets teach us anything, it’s that there is no way to know what’s coming next. Without a crystal ball, there is no perfect day, month, or year to “time the market.”
That said, outside of global events, there are still countless people who will argue for following historic trends like waiting to list in the spring, when Wall St. bonus checks have arrived and the holiday hangover has transitioned into the spring cleaning. Yes, the spring season is the most active for the real estate market, that is true. What that means though, is that there is more competition. A much larger selection of inventory in the spring means a greater pool of favorable comparison shopping and subsequent negotiation.
Certainly there are risks to any investment, and any good real estate broker will help mitigate those risks with sound advice (including, when relevant, past market data). But fortunately, one point of distinction about real estate in Fairfield County is liquidity. With high-demand and limited-supply, there are always eager and interested buyers looking to purchase. In Greenwich, this means we have the luxury of being able to time big decisions based on life circumstances instead of what a few headlines or talking heads tell us to do.
Sellers in the spring might find that their home has less of the “wow factor” than they anticipated, solely based on the fact that there is more competition, not that there is anything wrong with the house. And both parties may find that with more buyers looking, and more inventory for sale, their offers (and concessions) may need to get sweeter in order to ink a deal. A transaction that might have passed quickly and quietly in the autumn or winter, when inventory is very limited, can face headwinds come spring and summer, when competition abounds. When inventory is tight, even a less than stellar house can look a lot better to buyers faced with a moving deadline.
Timing Your Life
There’s never a perfect time to change homes, but unlike the financial and real estate markets, there are life circumstances that can be “timed,” or at least anticipated such as marriage, children, job opportunities, and even end of life. While the Fed may drop interest rates in a few months or in a year, or other global events may influence pricing, family dynamics tend to be a bit more regular. And for that, they make much better considerations on which to plan big changes, like a real estate purchase or sale.
From newborns to high school graduates, children play a large part in dictating the size, location, and layout of a house. As children grow, the requirements of the home also evolve, and perhaps what worked for young children—a single shared bathroom for instance—is less than ideal for teenagers. This evolution reflects the shifting needs of each family, and thankfully it happens at pretty regular intervals that can be planned for and timed.
Of course, it isn’t only families with children who change over the years. From DINKs (dual income, no kids) to Golden Girls, the need for change is constant—or at least consistent.
Beyond big life events, our own styles and tastes can evolve dramatically. What once was quaint and cozy might now feel cramped and cluttered. A spacious open kitchen that once hosted Thanksgiving dinners and Sunday brunches might now feel too large and unnecessary. The grand staircase adorned with garlands each winter may not work as health changes necessitate single-level living. And what was in vogue 10 years ago may not be your cup of tea anymore.
One thing is certain: the wants and needs of our homes fluctuate with ourselves. What was your “dream home” back then will be someone else’s dream home today. Thankfully, when it is time to list or buy, our local market is one that enjoys an envious level of demand.
Who Is Transacting?
In Greenwich, demand for homes nearly always outstrips supply. For existing homeowners, this market liquidity is a very valuable tool that negates a need to time the market. Did you know that 74% of moves in 2023 were from residents already living in Connecticut? That is a huge percentage of households. While there are always headlines about hedge-fund moguls, celebrities, or deep-pocketed international buyers moving to Greenwich, the vast majority of buyers are actually from Connecticut. The potential buyer for your home most likely isn’t coming from abroad, but is from your own neighborhood or the next town over. They’re families looking to trade up, trade down, or maybe just seeking something different.
The ultimate factor in deciding when to list your home isn’t when interest rates go down to 3% (you might be in for a long wait), or when the Dow hits 50,000, it is when you are ready. Even the worst investor, who bought the market at its peak every single time, still, over the long term, made a profit. I would wager that most everyone who has owned a home in Greenwich for at least a few years has seen a handsome rise in their equity. You have to decide when you are ready to cash out and use that money for another investment, whether it is another home, a protected trust for your family, or a reallocation of risk.
So When Do I Buy/Sell?
The longer you’ve been in a home, the harder it can be to leave. If you’ve been waiting, thinking about selling, there is certainly a bit of nostalgia and emotion that combines to make the decision more difficult. Asking for outside advice can help to give an objective point-of-view to the situation. A broker will be able to clearly weigh the pros and cons of selling, while also taking into account considerations, or hesitations, you may have about the process. The right broker is more than a salesperson—they quickly become a trusted friend and can provide resources to help you sort through a lifetime’s worth of prized possessions and make plans for their future landing spot.
When thinking about the future of your real estate investments, independent guidance and counsel is essential to making an informed decision. Often, a home is the single largest store of wealth that a household has at their disposal. Don’t waste time waiting and wondering what you should do, thinking that you can beat the market and save some money; in fact, you’re leaving money on the table. The market is strong and, with the help of a trusted broker, you can find a time that is right for you, and your loved ones.
